It turns out the run-up to Thanksgiving isn’t giving beer much to be thankful for.

According to recent industry reports, beer sales continue to slip heading into the holiday stretch, a time traditionally associated with family gatherings, turkey, and yes — cold cans of lager.

But this year’s numbers suggest consumers are gravitating toward alternatives like ready-to-drink cocktails, hard seltzers, and even non-alcoholic beverages, leaving beer fighting to hold onto its seat at the table.

2024 vs. 2025: A Year-to-Date Comparison

Here’s how beer’s performance so far in 2025 stacks up against the same period in 2024 — and why the decline feels more than just seasonal.

• Taxable Removals (Shipments): According to the Beer Institute, by July 2025, beer removals (a proxy for shipments) were estimated at 12.63 million barrels, down 0.8% compared to July 2024.
• Wider Year-to-Date Shipments: Through mid-2025, cumulative Beer Institute estimates show a decline of ~4.6% in taxable removals vs. the same months in 2024.
• On-Premise Volume Decline: The BeerBoard Q1 2025 report shows draft beer volume fell 8.5% compared to Q1 2024.
• Packaged On-Premise Beer: Interestingly, packaged beer on-premise in Q1 2025 grew 6.4% vs. Q1 2024, — but that isn’t enough to fully offset draft losses.
• Annual On-Premise Drop in 2024: To provide context, BeerBoard’s 2024 “Year in Review” found that both draft and packaged beer volumes were down 6% in 2024 compared to 2023, highlighting how 2024 was already a weak base year.
• Craft Production: The Brewers Association reports U.S. craft brewers produced 23.1 million barrels in 2024, a 3.9% decrease from 2023. Meanwhile, the overall market is also softening: craft volume share stayed relatively flat, but the production drop signals growing headwinds.

What It All Means

Putting together the year-over-year data:

• The shipment declines suggest brewers are producing or distributing less beer this year — a strong signal that demand (or at least stocking behavior) is slowing.
• The sharp drop in draft volume in on-premise venues (bars, restaurants) shows that fewer people are opting for beer when they go out, or operators are pouring less.
• On the flip side, packaged beer’s Q1 growth suggests that some consumers might be shifting to “take-home” beer, but that trend isn’t strong enough to make up for lost draft volume.
• The downturn in craft production is meaningful: even as craft beer remains relatively premium, the volume drops hints at deeper consumer shifts or saturation in the market.

Bottom Line

With large domestic brands continuing to feel pressure from all sides, and craft breweries reporting softer taproom traffic and flattening distribution numbers, things have been better for the beer biz.

Still, Thanksgiving weekend remains one of the biggest drinking periods of the year, and brewers are hoping the winter holidays might help soften the drop.

“Beer definitely isn’t going away,”  said American Craft Beer Editor, Tom Bobak, “but it’s also not the automatic first choice it used to be. So whether consumers are doing wine, cocktails, or enjoying an IPA, one thing’s for sure — this Thanksgiving, beer’s place on the menu is no longer guaranteed.”