(Photo © Brewers Association)

In his recent post Mixed Signs at Midyear for Craft Beer, the Brewers Association chief economist Bart Watson,  shared some concerns about how craft beer is faring as consumers head out into the world again, especially with regard to off-premise sales*.

Bart Watson: Photo © Brewers Association

Using data provided by sales scans at multi-outlet food and convenience stores tracked by market research firm IRI, dollar sales are down -7.7% year through June 12 compared to the same period last year.

Craft beer’s dollar sales decline was much greater than the overall beer segment, which was down -2.2% for the same period. Only hard seltzer which was down -8% and assorted ready-to-drink alcohol options down -20.1% have showed larger declines than the craft beer segment.

So yeah, not great news for craft brewers…

And we’ve some highlights (lowlights?) from his most recent bit of analysis.

“Given that context, craft’s struggles in scan in the first half of 2022 should be viewed somewhere in between expected and alarming. The expected viewpoint would note that given the importance of the on-premise for craft, you might expect channel shift to effect craft more than other segments.”

“There clearly is very little momentum behind craft beer at chain retail at the moment, continuing a string of several years where this is the case. At worst, scan volume was basically at 2019 levels in a first half where distributed draught was pretty clearly still weaker than it was pre-pandemic.”

“And with ready to drink (RTD) spirits and a variety of other fourth category products coming for craft’s shelf space, it’s hard to see a lot of momentum for changing that trend anytime soon.”

“In closing, craft has benefited in the past year from the return of on-premise. In that context, weak scan data in the first half falls somewhere in between a continuation of good news and a sign of future weakness. [/box]

###

* On-premise refers to an establishment that sells alcohol that is consumed on site (think bars and restaurants). Off-premise means that beverages are purchased at the location and consumed off site. This can include grocery and liquor stores