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The thing about predictions is that many of them are so damned predictable, others not so much. But that’s never stopped us in the past and sometimes we even get some of them right.
Local Breweries Will Remain Hot, National Craft Breweries Not
2018 saw the rise of localism and craft beer fans increasingly migrating to local brands over out-of-state ‘more national’ brands. This trend will not only continue this year, we expect it will vastly accelerate.
Already feeling the sting of this ongoing migration many of the nation’s bigger craft breweries are hunkering down and adopting more defensive business strategies…
Not only did Deschutes (the tenth largest craft brewery in the nation) put its east coast brewery plans on hold for a second time in 2017, it also laid off nearly 10 percent of its staff in December.
Craft Breweries Will Lessen Their Distribution Footprint
With more American breweries in operation than ever before and the success of local taproom sales as profit-increasing distribution vehicles, breweries whose once aspired to a wider and wider reach will pull back in droves and concentrate their efforts on owning their own backyards.
As the Charlotte Observer astutely ‘observed’ “Even breweries that are in-demand will likely hesitate to undertake similar expansions given the drastic change over the last few years…we’ll hear less about production breweries in 2019.”
Flagship Beers Will Continue To Decline Due To Growing Consumer Infatuation with the New
We have to give Cat Wolinski, a terrific beer journalist, 100% credit for this astute observation…
New Belgium’s Fat Tire Amber Ale continues to decline
In a recent Hop Take column at Vinpair, Cat chronicles the demise the long-held concept of breweries building their businesses around four or five core year-round flagship beers punctuated by an occasional limited release or seasonal offering…
Citing recent report in Brewbound with data provided by IRI Worldwide, Wolinski notes that off-premise sales of craft flagship brands (think grocery store sales as opposed to beer purchased in a bars or restaurants) are in steep decline, the victims of fleeting brand loyalty, and a growing number of craft beer fans bored with the usual and obsessed with the new…
“Boston Lager declined more than 14 percent last year. New Belgium’s Fat Tire fell more than 19 percent. Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, despite being the second-best-selling craft brand in the country, is also in decline.”
We expect that this new paradigm will only increase the pressure on craft breweries in 2019…especially those with huge distribution footprints who are inherently more reliant on their core offering than smaller more nimble operators.
Need more predictions? There’s also this…
